Browns' pre-draft moves earn applause from NFL experts
In his fourth year as Browns general manager, Phil Savage reached a personal watershed.
"I've already done two things that, at least in my mind, I felt I would never do sitting in this chair," he said during a respite at NFL league meetings three weeks ago. "One was to take a receiver in the top five, and the other was to trade away the first day of your draft."
Savage is an avowed draftnik who feels more comfortable beating the bushes of the deep South to scout college players than mingling with billionaire owners at lavish resorts.
Nobody will have a more empty feeling than him on April 26 when the first two rounds of the NFL draft go by without the Browns making a pick. Then he will have to sit through the third round on April 27 and most of the fourth before announcing the Browns' first selection at No. 122.
The draft drought, of course, is the result of trades for quarterback Brady Quinn last year and defensive linemen Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers this year.
The Browns have never before been so depleted on draft day. But it's happened with other teams, a lot more than you think. Seventeen times previously since 1970.
Denver in 1995 was the last NFL team with no picks in the first three rounds. Guess what? The sky didn't crash into the Rocky Mountains. The Broncos unearthed a future rushing champion in the sixth round by the name of Terrell Davis.
The Raiders of 1989 were not so lucky. Their first pick didn't come until the sixth round, 140th overall. They made virtually nothing out of their five picks total.
In 1986, the Broncos also had no picks in the top three rounds, yet still found two future starters in the sixth round, tight end Orson Mobley and receiver Mark Jackson.
Trading away a team's top of the draft was the personal M.O. of George Allen, who, as coach of the Washington Redskins in the 1970s, coined the expression, "The future is now."
For six straight years starting in 1972, the Redskins picked no higher than the fourth round. One year they didn't own a pick until the eighth round. Those veteran-laden teams won 66 percent of their games and qualified for the postseason four times and the Super Bowl once.
Taking risks to get better
Savage's actions state a "future is now" message for 2008, but not beyond.
"My impression is that Phil is a guy who wants to build through the draft," said Floyd Reese, the former Tennessee general manager who now serves as an analyst for ESPN. "What happens, when you reach certain maturity levels with your club, you almost have to take a chance to get better. And I think that's what he's done. He's thinking, 'If we can get a proven vet and bring him in and get better, maybe it gets us over the top next year.' I think that's what he's done.
"It's a calculated risk. [But] at points in time, if you don't do something to get to the next level, you never get there."
Nobody interviewed for this story disagreed with the approach.
"The way I look at it, Phil traded his picks for veteran, proven players. You have to factor those in," said Bill Kuharich, Chiefs vice president of player personnel. "It's not like they don't have anybody for the one, two and three. And they've still got four through seven.
"He made the decision that the defensive tackles he may take at two and three aren't as good as Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers. I have no problem with what he's done."
Kuharich was the top football executive of the New Orleans Saints when they traded virtually their entire draft in 1999, plus a one and three the following year, for the rights to draft running back Ricky Williams.
It didn't work out for the Saints; Kuharich and coach Mike Ditka were fired after a 3-13 season.
Kuharich's plan was to roll the money saved from the '99 draft into a pool of new veteran players the following year. The new management did just that and the Saints rebounded to 10-6.
Charlie Casserly was the Washington general manager who made the trade with Kuharich and the Saints in 1999. He applauds Savage for his moves.
"I think it's smart," said Casserly, now an analyst for CBS. "Go find a defensive lineman in the second round better than Corey Williams. You're not. Shaun Rogers in the third round? That's a no-brainer. You can talk about what Shaun Rogers' issues are, but the percentage of getting a starter in the third round is 30 percent. In the second round it's 50 percent. So you've beat the odds in both rounds. These were no-brainers."
Washington's Allen purged his draft for veteran players in the era before the salary cap. A team couldn't exist doing it today.
"The only issue is the salary cap," Casserly said. "But the salary cap is big enough and [the Browns] have managed the cap real well. When you trade a pick for a veteran, you give up salary cap space. You increase your percentages of getting a better player and make yourself a better football team, so there's no question there's a value of doing it. You just don't want to do it too many times because it affects your salary cap."
Reese said there is a risk in not receiving that influx of young players entering their primes in three years.
In the Browns' case, though, Brady Quinn represents the No. 1 pick, so you're only talking about the players the Browns would've drafted in the second and third rounds. And Williams (26 years old) and Rogers (29) are young enough to still be viable contributors in three years.
"If these veterans don't pan out, then it's a double whammy because you're paying them a zillion dollars and you lose the young players," Reese said.
"But you have to look at the draft the year before and the draft next year," Casserly said. "As long as you're sandwiching drafts around that [depleted draft], you'll overcome the fact you won't have those younger players. By keeping your draft choices next year, you're not going to have [a problem]."
That's probably the main reason not to expect Savage to dip into his 2009 draft to move into the top three rounds this year.
The future is now for 2008. The future for 2009 could be even brighter.
